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Mr Blackjack shows how EV can be crucial towards measuring your long-term performance.","preloadPreference":null,"flashPlayerUrl":"https://embed-ssl.wistia.com/flash/embed_player_v2.0.swf?2017-04-20","showAbout":true,"createdAt":1641753974,"firstEmbedForAccount":false,"firstShareForAccount":false,"keyframeAlign":true,"useMediaDataHostLogic":true,"projectId":6355787,"stats":{"loadCount":203,"playCount":115,"uniqueLoadCount":183,"uniquePlayCount":111,"averageEngagement":0.820812},"trackingTransmitInterval":20,"integrations":{},"captions":[{"language":"eng","text":"We hear expected value or\nEV mentioned a lot in poker,\n\nbut it also appears\nin blackjack too.\n\nAll players should\nbe aware of EV\n\nas it helps you measure\nyour winnings over time.\n\nLesson 4, what is EV and how\ndoes it affect your bankroll?\n\nWhat is expected value, EV?\n\nIt's the long-term result\nof a decision based\n\non a particular situation.\n\nIn simple terms, it\nis the expected total\n\nyou will win or\nlose when you play.\n\nThe key thing to remember is\nthat it's the long-term result.\n\nFor instance,\nexpected value says\n\nif you played a hand\n100 times and you\n\nmade a specific\ndecision, the odds\n\nstate you would expect\nto win 40% of the time.\n\nYou should always make the\ndecision with the highest EV\n\neven if your gut\ntells you otherwise.\n\nYour decisions should\nalways be based\n\non basic strategy in blackjack.\n\nThe math has already\nbeen calculated for you\n\nand will tell you exactly\nwhich decision will give you\n\na positive expected value.\n\nSo in practice, say, you\nhave 13 against a dealer 10.\n\nYou're faced with two choices,\nhit the 13 or stay on the 13.\n\nIf you stay, we call that\nstay and pray, by the way.\n\nYour expected odds of\nwinning or EV is 32%.\n\nIf you hit, your chances of\nwinning the hand go up to 36%\n\ngranted.\n\nThis is not an excellent\nsituation for you.\n\nHowever, you must make\nthe proper decision\n\nbased on the expected outcome\nof not only this hand,\n\nbut the next 100\nhands like this.\n\nAnd if you play consistently\nusing basic strategy,\n\nthe math will even out and\nmake you a winning player.\n\nTo put this into perspective.\n\nIf across 100 hands you're\nbetting $20 per hand\n\nand you're making choices\nthat reduce your EV,\n\nit can change your odds\nby 7.5% on average,\n\ndepending on the situation.\n\nOver the 100 hands\nplayed, you will win some\n\nbecause you got\nlucky and you will\n\nlose hands for the same reason.\n\nBut the math always evens\nout in the long run,\n\nand those bad decisions\nyou made will cost you\n\n$150 more on average\nthan if you would have\n\nplayed the hands correctly.\n\nYou're probably wondering why\nwe should care about expected\n\nvalue.\n\nWell, casinos do, because it's\nhow they make their money.\n\nIf you don't use any basic\nstrategy or card counting,\n\nthe Casino advantage is\njust over 50% in blackjack.\n\nSo if you go to the Casino\nand get lucky at the table\n\nat first, the Casino won't mind.\n\nThey know you'll keep playing\nin hopes of winning more.\n\nAnd eventually, in\nthe long run, they\n\nwill win back any money\nthey initially lost.\n\nIf you're using basic\nstrategy and card counting,\n\nyou can reverse the\nCasino's edge in your favor.\n\nExpected value will\ntell you how much\n\nyou can win in the long run,\ndepending on your skill.\n\nThis is why all\nskilled blackjack\n\nplayers need expected value.\n\n[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],"transcript":{"videoId":"81f907f4-53e2-474b-94b0-687e916171f2"},"embed_options":{"volumeControl":"true","fullscreenButton":"true","controlsVisibleOnLoad":"true","playerColor":"00bfb9","bpbTime":"false","plugin":{"captions-v1":{"language":"","onByDefault":"true","on":"true","async":"false"}},"vulcan":true,"videoQuality":"","stillUrl":"https://embed-ssl.wistia.com/deliveries/1e0973f36ec42fabb008a27195091939.png","unalteredStillImageAsset":{"url":"https://embed-ssl.wistia.com/deliveries/1e0973f36ec42fabb008a27195091939.png","width":"1920","height":"1080"},"playsinline":true}},"options":{}};
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